The premium Chinese buyers pay to secure imported copper has climbed above US$200 per tonne, reaching its highest level in data going back to 2017, as competition for physical supplies intensifies.
The Yangshan premium, which measures the additional amount Chinese importers pay above London Metal Exchange (LME) prices, rose above US$200 a tonne on 28 October. The indicator is named after the Shanghai port that serves as a major hub for copper imports into China.
The sharp increase reflects pressure on supplies in China, where inventories have fallen below typical seasonal levels and domestic refined copper production has eased. Chinese buyers have continued to seek supplies despite elevated international prices, adding to competition for metal available for immediate delivery.
Another factor is the movement of copper into the United States ahead of potential import tariffs on refined copper. Traders have redirected hundreds of thousands of tonnes to the US in anticipation of possible policy changes, leaving a large share of visible inventories concentrated there and reducing the amount readily available to buyers elsewhere.
Pressure is also showing up in the LME futures market. The premium for cash copper over the three-month contract widened to US$217 per tonne, its highest level since mid-August. This backwardation, where metal available for immediate delivery costs more than supplies scheduled for later, points to tight near-term availability.
However, the situation does not necessarily indicate a shortage of copper across the world as a whole. Reuters reported in August that the tariff-driven movement of metal into US warehouses had tightened supplies elsewhere, even as analysts expected a global surplus. The distribution of available stocks, rather than the total amount alone, is therefore an important part of the current market picture.
The latest figures point to continued pressure on buyers seeking prompt supplies, particularly in China. How the market develops will depend partly on US tariff decisions, the movement of inventories and whether production and shipments can meet demand in the coming months.
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